薛洪言：50万亿定期存款到期潮下，银行FOF能否成为资金“新锚”？

Core Insights - A significant wave of approximately 50 trillion yuan in one-year or longer fixed-term deposits is set to impact China's financial market in 2026, driven by increased household precautionary savings over recent years [1] - Major banks are transitioning from being mere "funding channels" to "asset allocation service providers" in response to this deposit migration, as evidenced by the launch of customized Fund of Funds (FOF) products [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The FOF market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with 79 new public FOFs established in 2025, raising a total of 803.54 billion yuan, surpassing the total issuance from 2022 to 2024 [2] - By the end of Q3 2025, the total number of public FOFs reached 518, with a combined management scale of 1,872.46 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from earlier stages [2] - The market has developed a clear risk stratification structure, with mixed-asset FOFs being the primary growth driver, accounting for 36% of the market by Q3 2025 [2] Group 2: Bank Strategies - China Merchants Bank's "TREE Longying Plan" offers a four-tier risk-return system to cater to different risk appetites, while Construction Bank's "Longying Plan" focuses on a "two-layer selection" mechanism for fund companies and products [3] - Both banks are responding to the pressure from the comprehensive implementation of public fund fee reforms, which have reduced traditional commission income from fund distribution [3][4] Group 3: Strategic Transformation - The shift towards customized FOFs is a response to changing macroeconomic conditions and client demands, moving from product sales to client asset management [4][5] - This transformation emphasizes a service-driven income model, where revenue is linked to asset management fees rather than transaction-based commissions, aligning bank interests with long-term client asset growth [4][5] Group 4: Industry Implications - The competition landscape in wealth management is evolving, with banks transitioning from passive product distributors to active asset allocation designers, enhancing their professional capabilities [5][6] - This shift is expected to create a more rational and mature market environment, as banks educate investors on the value of long-term investment and risk diversification [6][7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The anticipated migration of 50 trillion yuan in deposits will likely lead more banks to engage in or deepen their customized FOF offerings, marking a significant transition from "savings managers" to "asset allocation service providers" [7][9] - The financial industry is moving towards a more mature phase, reflecting a broader narrative of transitioning from a "savings era" to an "asset allocation era" in China [9]