铜“牛市叙事”即将崩塌? 特朗普铜关税信号或成“牛转熊”最锋利拐点

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs presents a mixed outlook on copper prices, acknowledging short-term bullish factors driven by scarcity and demand from the energy transition and AI infrastructure, while cautioning about a potential mid-term correction due to fundamental market conditions and U.S. tariff policies [1][5][9]. Group 1: Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 from $11,525 per ton to $12,750 per ton, citing a "scarcity premium" and insufficient inventory outside the U.S. as key drivers [1][7]. - The firm maintains a cautious outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026, predicting a price of $11,200 per ton, indicating that prices above $13,000 per ton are unlikely to be sustainable in the long term [1][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in copper prices is attributed to two main factors: U.S. tariff expectations causing a "cross-regional depletion" effect and strong demand driven by AI-related investments [5][6]. - The U.S. copper market is experiencing a structural mismatch, with rising Comex copper inventories and declining LME copper stocks, leading to increased scarcity premiums [5][6]. Group 3: Tariff Implications - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs on refined copper products is a critical factor influencing market behavior, with potential announcements expected in the second quarter of 2026 [9][10]. - Goldman Sachs outlines various scenarios regarding tariff implementation, with a baseline scenario suggesting a 15% tariff announcement in mid-2026, while a delay could lead to significant downward pressure on copper prices [10][11]. Group 4: Speculative Positioning - The copper futures market is currently characterized by a crowded speculative long position, which may lead to increased volatility and sensitivity to market catalysts [11][12]. - A shift in the narrative from scarcity to potential oversupply could trigger a rapid price decline if the "hoarding logic" weakens [11][12].