张尧浠:非农及指数调整来袭 金价多头风险与机会并存

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices showed a recovery after hitting a low, indicating a potential for further strength, despite short-term fluctuations and adjustments in the market [1][10]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4459.68 per ounce, experienced a drop to a low of $4407.55, and then rebounded to close at $4477.11, marking a daily increase of $17.43 or 0.39% [1][10]. - The daily trading range was $71.65, reflecting volatility in the market [1][10]. Influencing Factors - The decline in gold prices was influenced by pressure from previous resistance levels, increased margin requirements for precious metals futures, and better-than-expected initial data from the U.S. market [3][12]. - Support from buying interest and favorable initial jobless claims data helped gold prices recover [3][12]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as warnings of potential large-scale airstrikes in Ukraine, contributed to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][12]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with a target of $5000 and higher, despite potential short-term pressures from a strong U.S. dollar and upcoming non-farm payroll data [3][12][15]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates multiple times this year, which could further support gold prices [15]. - Technical analysis suggests that if gold maintains its upward trend, it could see significant gains, potentially exceeding 30% within the year, with targets set between $5500 and $6000 [15][17]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices are showing strength, recovering most of the previous month's losses and indicating a potential new bull market [15]. - Weekly trends show gold prices recovering from previous declines and maintaining positions above key moving averages, suggesting increased bullish potential [17]. - Daily charts indicate that while bullish momentum has weakened, gold remains above key support levels, maintaining an overall upward trend [18].