黄金高位拉锯待破局 非农与美联储新掌门人选成焦点

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, with the upcoming non-farm payroll data expected to confirm this trend, impacting the dollar index and gold prices [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized that lowering interest rates is crucial for economic growth, urging the Federal Reserve not to delay action [1][2]. - President Trump has indicated he has decided on a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, but has not disclosed the name, suggesting that the nominee must support rate cuts [2][3]. - The current Fed Chair Powell is under pressure from Trump, who has been vocal about his desire for significant rate reductions, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [2][3]. Group 2: Labor Market Data - The market is focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll data, with expectations of 60,000 new jobs added in December, down from a previous value of 64,000, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [1][4]. - If the actual non-farm payroll data is in line with or weaker than expectations, it may further validate the trend of a slowing labor market [1]. Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices are currently in a high-level consolidation phase after a recent upward trend, with prices moving from $4,300 to $4,500 [4]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to influence gold prices, with a lower-than-expected result likely to strengthen rate cut expectations and support gold prices [4]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices face resistance around $4,500-$4,520 and support near $4,450-$4,430, with a potential for adjustments based on the non-farm data [4].