杨华曌:12月美国非农就业和失业率数据即将发布 2026年初市场面临挑战

Core Viewpoint - The global market is showing strong performance at the beginning of 2026, but investors are facing a significant test with the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report and a potential Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariff policies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Despite recent news, the U.S. stock and bond markets have remained stable at the start of January 2026, indicating an unusual calmness that may soon be disrupted [1][3]. - The S&P 500 index's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio has exceeded 22 times, a historically high level comparable to the peak in January 2022, which marked the beginning of a nine-month bear market [4]. Group 2: Employment Data Expectations - The consensus anticipates that the U.S. will add 60,000 non-farm jobs in December, close to the preliminary estimate of 64,000 from November, with the unemployment rate expected to decrease from 4.6% to 4.5% [4]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Risks - A strong employment report could lead investors to lower expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts this year, potentially interrupting the upward momentum of the stock market [2][4]. - Conversely, a weak report may reignite concerns about the economic outlook and labor market, prompting investors to reassess the high valuations of certain sectors [2][4]. Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - International gold prices have struggled to maintain momentum due to a strong U.S. dollar, with market participants remaining cautious ahead of the non-farm payroll report [2][4]. - The potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical uncertainties are providing some support for gold prices, which are near historical highs [2][4].