森瑞投资林存：创新药2026年开了个好头！|生物医药大健康2026思享汇

Core Insights - The biopharmaceutical industry is at a pivotal moment as it transitions from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the balance between technological innovation and value-driven growth [1] - The recent surge in the innovative drug sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 14-day winning streak and the Hong Kong innovative drug index rising by an average of 12% over three days, indicates strong market support for innovative pharmaceuticals [4] - The Chinese government has reinforced its commitment to the innovative drug sector through policies like "Full Chain Support for Innovative Drug Development," which is expected to create significant industry opportunities [4] Industry Growth Drivers - Innovative drugs are recognized as a critical new productive force, comparable in priority to AI and other emerging technologies, with substantial government backing [4] - In 2025, China signed over 150 new business development (BD) agreements in the innovative drug sector, totaling more than $130 billion, a 150% increase from 2024, with upfront payments reaching $7 billion [5] - The anticipated "milestone" rewards from these agreements could exceed $30 billion in the next 3-5 years, fostering the growth of China's innovative drug market despite inherent development risks [5] Market Dynamics - The global biopharmaceutical development landscape is revitalizing due to expiring drug patents and a favorable interest rate environment, with major pharmaceutical companies increasing their R&D investments [6] - The emergence of blockbuster innovative drugs in China, such as AK112 and SKB264, showcases the potential for significant sales in the global market, with some products challenging established leaders [6][7] - The international geopolitical climate is expected to enhance China's economic prospects, leading to increased capital inflows into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, signaling the onset of a major bull market [7] Future Outlook - The period between 2026 and 2027 is anticipated to yield significant clinical breakthroughs in innovative drugs, potentially leading to substantial stock price revaluations [7] - The next 20 years are projected to be a prosperous era for China, with substantial returns expected for those following technological innovations in the biopharmaceutical sector [8]