美联储降息预期释放 非农数据成政策关键

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% with no new rate adjustment announced, while signaling a significant rate cut of 150 basis points in 2026, which is expected to create approximately one million jobs without triggering inflation rebound [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been steadily shrinking, with a reduction of $276.59 billion in 2025, bringing the total to $6.54 trillion, including a decrease of $192.59 billion in mortgage-backed securities and $76.16 billion in Treasury holdings [1] - There is a notable divergence between market expectations and the Federal Reserve's internal discussions regarding future rate paths, with some officials advocating for maintaining rates while the market anticipates two rate cuts in 2026 [2][3] Group 2 - The upcoming non-farm payroll data, expected to show an increase of 73,000 jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5%, is seen as a critical indicator for the timing of the rate cut cycle [2] - The Federal Reserve is currently in a "policy wait-and-see" phase, with stable rates and gradual balance sheet reduction as the short-term focus, while the 150 basis points rate cut expectation sets the medium to long-term policy direction [3] - The management strategy of the balance sheet remains contentious, with some potential leadership candidates advocating for a more aggressive reduction, raising concerns about market liquidity fluctuations [2]