多晶硅期货主力合约及硅料个股大跌，行业“反内卷”到底怎样了| 陆说能源

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the polysilicon production in 2025 decreased by 28.4% year-on-year, but the industry has not yet emerged from an oversupply situation due to demand contraction [1][2] - As of January 9, 2026, multiple polysilicon futures contracts continued to decline, with the main contract closing at 51,300 yuan/ton, down 8.11% [1] - Leading domestic polysilicon companies saw significant stock price declines, with Tongwei Co., Ltd. down 3.83%, Daqo New Energy down 6.10%, and GCL-Poly Energy down 7.02% [1] Group 2 - The polysilicon market had previously shown positive developments in production and pricing due to the "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic sector [2] - The current spot price of silicon materials has rebounded over 70% from its historical low in June 2025 [2] - Three factors are driving the price increase at the beginning of 2026: reduced operating rates in silicon material production, rising prices in downstream silicon wafers and battery segments, and a certain tolerance for price increases in the component sector supported by existing orders [2][3] Group 3 - The fundamental issue in the photovoltaic industry remains a supply-demand imbalance, with supply contraction lagging behind demand decline [3] - Domestic installations have been in a downward trend due to the impact of policy document "No. 136," with a reported photovoltaic power generation utilization rate of 94.9% from January to October 2025, down 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The market is questioning the so-called "industry self-discipline" as merely a price increase strategy, highlighting the need for coordination across the entire industry chain to address the challenges of weak downstream demand [3][4] Group 4 - The chairman of Trina Solar emphasized the need for horizontal collaboration among various segments of the industry, including silicon materials, wafers, batteries, and components, to achieve profitability across the entire supply chain [4] - There is a call for both horizontal and vertical collaboration within the industry to effectively manage internal competition and achieve the goals of industry governance [4]