Core Viewpoint - The gas turbine industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle due to the accelerating construction of AI data centers, which is leading to a widening power supply-demand gap [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Demand is rapidly increasing while supply is constrained by supply chain issues and a delivery cycle of 3-5 years, resulting in a clear supply-demand gap; by 2025, global gas turbine order intentions have exceeded 80 GW, but actual deliverable capacity is less than 50 GW [2] - Heavy-duty gas turbines offer advantages in power and long-term stable operation, while medium and small-sized turbines are more flexible and reliable, with stronger demand elasticity in data center scenarios [2] - North America and the Middle East are driving demand, with the U.S. facing increasing constraints on its power system and the Middle East benefiting from low gas prices and data center projects [2] Domestic Equipment Manufacturers' Opportunities - The global gas turbine market is primarily dominated by companies like Siemens, GE, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and Caterpillar, indicating significant potential for domestic replacements [3] - Jerry Holdings has secured a $200 million order from a leading U.S. AI company and has sufficient gas turbine production capacity [3] - Haomai Technology focuses on gas turbine power cylinders and components, with a full order book from leading gas turbine companies [3] - Yingliu Technology specializes in high-temperature alloy blades, which are critical components in gas turbines, and is expected to increase its market share [3] - Linde Co. supplies castings for Caterpillar gas turbines and diesel engines, positioning it to benefit directly from market growth [3] Investment Recommendations - The gas turbine industry is recommended for investment due to the combination of explosive demand, supply constraints, and domestic replacement opportunities, highlighting companies like Jerry Holdings, Yingliu Technology, Haomai Technology, and Linde Co. [4]
东吴证券:燃气轮机行业高景气&供需错配 看好国产集成&零部件供应商优先受益