ATFX:非农夜黄金陷多空博弈 剑指新高还是威胁4400美元

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for December is expected to provide critical insights into the labor market and its implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, particularly after three consecutive rate cuts in 2025 [1][8]. Employment Data Summary - The market anticipates an increase of 55,000 jobs in December, down from a previous value of 64,000, with the unemployment rate expected to decrease from a four-year high of 4.6% to 4.5% [1][8]. - Average hourly wage growth is projected to rise to 0.3% month-over-month, compared to the previous 0.1%, indicating potential structural tightness in the labor market as companies may raise wages to retain key employees [1][8]. Market Reactions and Predictions - A significantly stronger-than-expected report could lead to a delay in expectations for the first interest rate cut, negatively impacting gold prices, with a focus on the $4,400 support level [10]. - If the data meets or slightly exceeds expectations, it may not disrupt the outlook for rate cuts and could keep gold prices stable within a relatively high range [11]. - Conversely, a significantly weaker-than-expected report could increase rate cut expectations and boost gold prices, challenging recent highs [11]. Additional Considerations - The report's revisions for the previous two months could alter market perceptions of employment trends, highlighting the importance of data accuracy [10]. - Comments from Federal Reserve officials post-data release will influence market interpretations of policy direction, particularly regarding inflation concerns [10]. - HSBC forecasts that geopolitical risks and rising debt could push gold prices to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, adjusting the average price forecast for 2026 from $4,600 to $4,587 per ounce due to potential price corrections later in the year [10].