3 of the Most Important Charts to Watch Right Now

Group 1: Market Overview - Markets are at a crossroads entering 2026, with subdued but volatile oil prices, steady interest rates despite hopes for cuts, and a climbing S&P 500 driven by strong earnings [2] - The trends reflect deeper macro shifts, including energy supply dynamics, Fed policy uncertainty, and renewed corporate momentum [2] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Current low oil prices are paradoxically leading to improving demand, which supports price action; however, oversupply is expected to cap prices in 2026 [3] - Geopolitical factors and economic growth are also influencing the oil market, creating uncertainty in forecasts [3] Group 3: Economic Growth and Energy Demand - Global GDP is projected to grow by 3.0% to 3.5% this year, driven by emerging markets and the expanding middle class, which accounts for 30% to 40% of global GDP [5] - The middle class is expected to drive energy demand through increased access to transportation, housing, and heating [5] Group 4: Oil Price Projections - WTI prices are near long-term lows, indicating a potential technical bottom and a high probability of a rebound if a catalyst emerges; gains could reach double digits [5] - Low oil prices are contributing to cooler inflation, but there is a risk that prices could fall further, impacting energy companies' earnings and capital returns [5][6] Group 5: Interest Rates and S&P 500 Outlook - Although Fed rates are falling, the outlook for further cuts may weaken, posing a risk of higher consumer-level interest rates [6] - The S&P 500 is currently in a favorable position and may continue to rally regardless of fluctuations in oil prices and interest rates [6]