黄力晨:非农数据预期疲软 黄金整体方向看涨

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly the arrest of Venezuela's president, and upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, leading to profit-taking by investors and a subsequent high-level adjustment in gold prices [2][6]. Market Analysis - The market is currently focused on the U.S. non-farm payroll data, with expectations of 60,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.5%. If the data meets or falls short of expectations, it may reinforce the anticipation of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which would be favorable for gold prices [2][6]. - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and strong central bank buying [3][7]. Technical Indicators - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,450 and $4,400, while resistance levels are at $4,500 and $4,550. The 5-day moving average shows a bullish crossover, while MACD indicates a slight bearish crossover, and KDJ shows a bullish crossover, suggesting a mixed short-term technical outlook [2][7]. - Gold prices have shown high-level fluctuations, with recent trading between $4,460 and $4,480, currently around $4,473. The price has faced resistance at $4,500 after a recent high of $4,484 [1][5].