联合国粮农组织：尽管食品价格指数在2025年后期呈现逐月下跌态势 但2025年全年均值仍同比高4.3%

Core Insights - The FAO Food Price Index is projected to average 124.3 points in December 2025, a decrease of 0.6% from November, with dairy, meat, and vegetable oil prices declining more than the increases in grain and sugar prices [1] - Year-on-year, the food price index is down 2.3% compared to the same month last year and 22.4% from the historical peak in March 2022 [1] - Despite a downward trend in late 2025, the annual average index is expected to be 127.2 points, up 4.3% from 2024 [1] Grain Prices - The FAO Grain Price Index averaged 107.3 points in December, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.7% [3] - The rice price index rose by 4.3% due to reduced harvest pressure, improved demand, and supportive policies [3] - The annual average grain price index for 2025 is projected at 107.9 points, down 4.9% from 2024, marking the lowest level since 2020 [3] Vegetable Oil Prices - The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index averaged 164.6 points in December, a decrease of 0.2%, reaching a six-month low [4] - The decline is attributed to falling prices of soybean, canola, and sunflower oils, which outweighed the slight increase in palm oil prices [4] - The annual average vegetable oil price index for 2025 is expected to be 161.6 points, up 17.1% from the previous year, marking a three-year high [4] Meat Prices - The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 123.6 points in December, down 1.3% from November but up 3.4% year-on-year [5] - All meat prices declined, with beef and poultry experiencing the largest drops due to increased supply and weak demand [5] - The annual average meat price index for 2025 is projected at 123.2 points, an increase of 5.1% from 2024, driven by strong import demand and geopolitical uncertainties [5] Dairy Prices - The FAO Dairy Price Index fell by 4.4% in December, but the average for 2025 is expected to be 146.9 points, up 13.2% from 2024 [5] - The increase is primarily driven by strong demand for cheese, whole milk powder, and butter, despite a modest rise in skim milk powder prices [5] Sugar Prices - The FAO Sugar Price Index averaged 90.7 points in December, up 2.4% month-on-month but down 24.0% year-on-year [6] - The increase is mainly due to a sharp decline in sugar production in Brazil, while optimistic production prospects in India are expected to keep global supply ample [6] - The annual average sugar price index for 2025 is projected at 104.3 points, down 17.0% from 2024, marking the lowest level since 2020 [6]