乘联分会：预计今年车市批发销量增1%，新能源车增长10%

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the growth of the automotive market in 2026 will face pressure, with retail sales expected to remain flat compared to 2025 [1][2] - In December 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.261 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14% but a month-on-month increase of 1.6% [1] - The total retail sales for the year 2025 amounted to 23.744 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, while wholesale sales reached 29.554 million units, up 8.8% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - In December 2025, retail sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) were 1.337 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6% and a month-on-month increase of 1.2%, with a penetration rate of 59.1% [2] - The total retail sales of NEVs for the year 2025 reached 12.809 million units, representing a growth of 17.6% [2] - In contrast, conventional fuel vehicle sales in December 2025 were 920,000 units, a significant year-on-year decline of 30% [2] Group 3 - The forecast for 2026 suggests a U-shaped market trend, with wholesale sales expected to grow by approximately 1%, reaching around 29.26 million units [2] - The growth rate for NEVs in 2026 is projected to be around 10%, influenced by factors such as the 5% vehicle purchase tax and trade-in subsidies [2] - The automotive industry is facing increasing pressure due to rising prices of upstream lithium carbonate and other raw materials, coupled with weak downstream demand [2] Group 4 - January is traditionally seen as a "good start" for the automotive market, with expectations for strong sales driven by pre-existing orders and a favorable market environment [3] - The early implementation of the trade-in policy in 2026 is expected to stabilize consumer expectations, contributing positively to January sales [3]