FXGT:2026贵金属展望

Core Viewpoint - The global precious metals market is at a critical turning point, transitioning from cyclical momentum to structural evolution, with price movements in 2026 driven more by asset correlation restructuring and tightening physical fundamentals rather than solely inflation expectations [1][3]. Central Bank Activities - Central banks' ongoing strategic buying has become a solid foundation for the gold market, with over 95% of surveyed central banks expected to increase gold reserves in the coming year to replace some dollar assets, indicating a shift from sporadic actions to a trend of continuous accumulation [1][3]. Gold Pricing Dynamics - The traditional negative correlation between gold and real yields is undergoing a transformation, as gold reached new highs despite high real yields in 2025. The sensitivity of this traditional pricing indicator has significantly decreased, necessitating a market modeling approach that considers macro hedging demand rather than just interest rates [4]. Silver Market Insights - The volatility of the gold-silver ratio reflects asynchronous pricing logic between the two metals, with silver exhibiting higher volatility due to its dual role as both a currency and an industrial metal. The silver market is experiencing its fifth consecutive year of supply shortages, driven by steady demand from the photovoltaic and electrical sectors [2][4]. Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) - The value proposition of platinum group metals is diverging from that of gold and silver, with platinum and palladium increasingly influenced by industrial production cycles and supply risks rather than being viewed as monetary assets. The market will focus on whether the high levels of 2025 can establish a solid base for consolidation in 2026 [5].