Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-09 11:54Core Viewpoint - The silver market is currently experiencing volatility and resistance above $80 per ounce, but this is not indicative of a trend reversal. Instead, it presents structural investment opportunities amidst market noise [1][2][3]. Market Dynamics - The recent increase in margin requirements by CME has led to short-term sell-offs, but CWG Markets believes this is a temporary reaction rather than a sign of a market collapse [1][2]. - Historical data shows that the last week of 2025 saw the largest weekly decline in silver prices since March, highlighting the need for investors to identify underlying opportunities rather than succumbing to panic [1][2]. Supply and Demand Factors - There is a significant decoupling in the physical silver market, with global refined silver export restrictions affecting approximately 70% of supply flow, leading to a historical high in physical silver scarcity [3][4]. - The contradiction between "paper suppression" and physical shortages is seen as a core driver for silver prices potentially reaching $200 in the future [3]. Strategic Competition - Unlike the manipulation seen in the 1980s, the current silver market dynamics reflect a global strategic reserve competition, with silver being classified as a strategic mineral by multiple countries [4]. - The existing inventory of 22,000 tons in London is now a target for various nations, further intensifying competition [4]. Economic Context - Basel III regulations require banks to increase physical reserves, which is tightening liquidity in the market [4]. - The macroeconomic backdrop, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the dollar index falling below 100, has significantly reduced the opportunity cost of holding silver, setting a solid foundation for its price increase [4]. Investment Opportunities - The recent short-term pullback in the silver market is viewed as a buying opportunity for long-term investments, particularly in silver-related mining and trust assets such as Metalla Royalty (MTA), Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM), and Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) [4]. - The dual drivers of resource security and currency devaluation are redefining the strategic value of silver [4].