非农夜暴击！美日汇率大变局？日本数据引爆加息猜想

Group 1 - Japan's household spending in November 2025 surged by 6.2% month-on-month, reversing a 3.5% decline in October, and showed a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, compared to a 2.9% decline in October [1] - The strong spending data supports hawkish views within the Bank of Japan, potentially leading to an increase in neutral interest rates and the tightening of monetary policy [1] - Private consumption accounts for approximately 55% of Japan's GDP, indicating that robust consumer spending could drive demand-pull inflation, reinforcing the central bank's stance on tightening [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to significantly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in March 2026, with economists predicting an increase of 60,000 jobs in December [2] - The ISM services PMI rose from 52.6 in November to 54.4 in December, indicating resilience in the U.S. economy and reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in March [2] - The expectation of continued rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, combined with a potentially dovish stance from the new Federal Reserve chair, remains a key factor influencing the medium-term outlook for the USD/JPY exchange rate [2] Group 3 - Technically, the USD/JPY is currently above the 50-day (155.22) and 200-day (151.56) exponential moving averages (EMA), indicating a bullish tendency; however, the prevailing bearish fundamentals are overshadowing this technical signal [3] - A break below the 50-day moving average and the key support level of 155 could accelerate downward momentum, with the 200-day moving average serving as significant support [3] - If the exchange rate consistently falls below the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, it would further reinforce a medium-term bearish price trend [3]