Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-09 13:27Core Viewpoint - Lenovo is experiencing a paradox of strong financial performance while struggling with its AI transformation, raising questions about its future viability in the market [1][15]. Financial Performance - Lenovo reported a revenue of 142.8 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a 15% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high for the quarter [1]. - Adjusted net profit reached 3.66 billion yuan, a 25% year-on-year surge, indicating that profit growth outpaced revenue growth [1]. - AI-related business revenue now accounts for 30% of total revenue, highlighting the increasing importance of AI in Lenovo's overall business strategy [1]. AI Business Insights - The core driver of growth in Lenovo's Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) is attributed to the structural demand upgrade driven by AI PCs, with AI terminal device revenue rising to 36%, a 17% year-on-year increase [2]. - Lenovo holds a 31.1% share of the global Windows AI PC market, maintaining its position as the market leader [2]. Challenges in AI Strategy - The claim that AI-related revenue constitutes 30% of total revenue may be misleading, as it appears to involve rebranding traditional business rather than reflecting genuine AI innovation [3]. - AI PCs, while marketed as "personal intelligent twins," lack disruptive innovation and are priced 30%-50% higher than standard PCs, limiting their appeal to average consumers [3]. - Lenovo's AI server business, despite showing growth, relies heavily on external orders and lacks foundational technology, positioning it as a follower rather than a leader in the market [3][9]. Market Dynamics - The cessation of support for Windows 10 has triggered a significant upgrade cycle, prompting users to replace their devices for continued system support [4]. - The pandemic-induced purchase of devices is also leading to a wave of replacements as these devices reach their update cycles [4]. Historical Context and Strategic Vision - Lenovo's focus on AI is partly a response to missed opportunities in the mobile era, with past acquisitions like IBM's PC business initially boosting performance but later leading to losses due to strategic missteps [6]. - The company has recognized the need for a robust AI strategy, with CEO Yang Yuanqing advocating for an "ALL in AI" approach since 2017, aiming to position Lenovo as a pioneer in smart technology [7]. R&D and Innovation - Lenovo's R&D spending is significantly lower than industry peers, with only 2.78% of revenue allocated to R&D in Q1 of the 2025/26 fiscal year, a decline from previous years [12]. - Compared to leading tech companies, Lenovo's R&D investment is substantially lower, indicating a conservative approach to innovation that may hinder its competitive edge in the AI landscape [12][13]. Strategic Partnerships - The partnership with NVIDIA represents a critical strategic move for Lenovo, aiming to enhance its capabilities in AI infrastructure and transition towards becoming a solutions provider rather than merely a hardware assembler [14][15]. - The success of this partnership will depend on Lenovo's ability to build a core competitive advantage and not revert to being a mere hardware manufacturer [14]. Conclusion - Lenovo's journey in the AI era reflects the broader anxiety of traditional hardware giants facing a transformative market landscape, with the need for a fundamental shift in strategy and execution to avoid being marginalized [15][16].