Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2026-01-09 13:53Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China is expected to see a slight growth in 2026, with total sales projected at approximately 35.5 million units, a 2% increase year-on-year, while retail sales of passenger cars are estimated at around 24 million units, reflecting a 1% growth. Despite this modest growth forecast, several automakers have set ambitious sales targets, indicating an intensifying competition for market share as the industry transitions from expansion to competition for existing market segments [2]. Group 1: New Energy Vehicle Manufacturers - New energy vehicle manufacturers maintain optimistic growth expectations, with target growth rates exceeding 30%, significantly higher than the 13% forecasted growth for new energy passenger vehicles by the China Passenger Car Association [3]. - Leap Motor aims for a sales target of 1 million units in 2026, representing a growth rate of 67.5%. In 2025, Leap Motor sold 597,000 units, achieving a remarkable 103% year-on-year increase and becoming the sales champion among new energy vehicle manufacturers [3]. - NIO's growth target for 2026 is set between 456,000 and 489,000 units, reflecting a growth rate of 40%-50%. In 2025, NIO sold 326,000 units, marking a 46.9% increase but falling short of its 440,000-unit target [4]. - Xiaomi Auto has set a sales target of 550,000 units for 2026, with a growth rate of 34%. In 2025, it sold 410,000 units, exceeding its previous target of 350,000 units [4]. Group 2: Traditional Automakers - Traditional automakers are generally more cautious, with Changan Automobile setting a target growth rate of 13.3% for 2026, aiming for total sales of 3.3 million units, including 1.4 million new energy vehicles, which would require a 26.2% year-on-year increase [6]. - Geely Automobile has a target growth rate of 14%, with a total sales goal of 3.45 million units for 2026. In 2025, Geely sold 3.025 million units, achieving a 39% increase [6]. - Chery Group also targets a growth rate of 14%, aiming for total sales of 3.2 million units in 2026. In 2025, it sold 2.806 million units, reflecting a 7.8% increase [7]. - Great Wall Motors has set a relatively high target growth rate of 36% for 2026, with a sales goal of 1.8 million units. In 2025, it sold 1.324 million units, marking a 7.33% increase [7]. - Dongfeng Group has established a sales target of 3.25 million units for 2026, with a growth rate of 30%, including 1.7 million new energy vehicles, which would require a 63% increase [8].