光伏出口退税全面取消，企业拟加班抢出货，业内称长短期影响不一

Core Viewpoint - The cancellation of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic (PV) products, effective April 1, 2026, signifies the end of the "rebate subsidy era" for the industry, leading to increased costs for export companies [1]. Group 1: Impact on Industry - The current export tax rebate rate for PV products is 9%, down from 13% as of December 1, 2024, which indicates a significant reduction in financial support for exporters [1]. - Analysts predict that the cancellation will primarily impact PV module manufacturers, resulting in increased direct costs and reduced price competitiveness [1]. - The cancellation is expected to reduce profit margins for exporters, with estimated profit reductions of 46 to 51 yuan per 210R PV module, compressing export gross margins [1]. Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Effects - In the short term, there may be a surge in orders from overseas clients as they seek to capitalize on the remaining rebate period, potentially alleviating pessimistic expectations within the supply chain [2]. - However, long-term projections indicate a potential decline in PV module exports by 5% to 10% due to the removal of the rebate, leading to a significant drop in overseas demand [2]. - The cash flow of export companies is anticipated to become a major risk factor as profit margins decrease [2]. Group 3: Industry Reactions and Adjustments - Some industry insiders express that the cancellation will have a substantial impact on all companies, not just small and medium-sized enterprises, as many rely heavily on the rebate for profitability [2]. - Companies are expected to ramp up production and shipping to overseas markets in anticipation of price increases post-cancellation, potentially leading to a supply-demand imbalance [2]. - The cancellation is viewed as a measure to combat unhealthy price competition within the industry, encouraging companies to abandon low-price strategies [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Perspective - The Chinese Photovoltaic Industry Association supports the adjustment of export tax rebates as a means to promote rational pricing in foreign markets and reduce trade friction risks [3]. - The association acknowledges that while adjusting export tax rebates is not the sole solution to external competition issues, it is beneficial for stabilizing export prices and mitigating trade disputes in the long run [3].