非农夜成关键节点！美元走势暗藏大变局

Core Viewpoint - The short-term performance of the US dollar is highly dependent on the upcoming non-farm payroll data, while the medium to long-term outlook indicates a clear weakening trend for the dollar due to multiple fundamental factors [1][2]. Short-term Summary - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March 2026 has slightly decreased from 41.6% to about 40% as of January 8, driven by resilient economic indicators [1]. - The ISM services PMI rose from 52.6 in November to 54.4 in December, indicating ongoing economic vitality [1]. - Economists predict a 60,000 increase in non-farm payrolls for December, with the unemployment rate potentially dropping to 4.5% and average hourly earnings rising by 3.6% year-on-year [1]. - Stronger-than-expected data could diminish rate cut bets and strengthen the dollar, particularly against the yen, while weak labor market data could increase easing expectations and suppress dollar demand [1]. Medium to Long-term Summary - The continuation of the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle is a core driver of the dollar's weakening trend, with expectations of a 150 basis point cut in 2026 to support the labor market [2]. - Fitch predicts two rate cuts in the first half of 2026, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.25% [2]. - The anticipated change in Fed leadership in 2026 is expected to lead to a more dovish monetary policy, further increasing downward pressure on the dollar [2]. - Differentiated global central bank policies are also suppressing the dollar's performance, with the Bank of Japan moving towards rate hikes, contrasting with the Fed's easing path [2]. Structural Challenges - The dollar index experienced a cumulative decline of 9.41% in 2025, marking the deepest annual drop since 2017, as global investor sentiment towards dollar assets shifts [3]. - Ongoing issues with the US fiscal and current account deficits are further diminishing the dollar's attractiveness [3]. - Analysts predict a "strong first, weak second" phase for the dollar in 2026, with the index expected to range between 93 and 102 [3]. - The dollar may maintain some resilience in the first half of the year due to fiscal impulses and AI capital inflows, but is expected to enter a clear downtrend in the second half as dovish Fed signals emerge and fiscal effects wane [3].