光伏出口退税全面取消 企业拟加班抢出货 业内称长短期影响不一

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, signals the end of the "rebate subsidy era" for the solar industry [1]. Group 1: Impact on the Industry - The current VAT export rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%, which will be reduced from 13% to 9% on December 1, 2024 [1]. - The cancellation of export rebates is expected to significantly impact photovoltaic module products, leading to increased direct costs for companies and reduced price competitiveness [1]. - The removal of export rebates means that photovoltaic module exporters will no longer benefit from VAT refunds, resulting in a profit reduction of approximately 46 to 51 yuan per 210R module, compressing export gross margins and increasing export costs [1]. Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Effects - In the short term, overseas terminal companies are expected to increase order demand rapidly before the rebate cancellation, potentially leading to a surge in export volumes [2]. - However, long-term projections indicate a significant decline in photovoltaic module export volumes by 5% to 10% due to the cancellation of export rebates, with a notable drop in overseas demand [2]. - The gross margins of exporting companies are anticipated to decrease, posing a risk to their cash flow [2]. Group 3: Industry Reactions and Adjustments - A domestic second-tier photovoltaic company expressed that the cancellation of export rebates would severely impact short-term operations, as some companies previously relied on the 9% rebate for profitability [2]. - Companies are expected to ramp up production and may not take breaks during the upcoming holiday season to stockpile products for export [2]. - The cancellation of export rebates could also create a supply-demand imbalance, prompting customers to purchase solar panels before prices rise, which may help clear overseas inventory [2]. Group 4: Strategic Industry Perspective - The cancellation of export rebates is viewed as a measure to combat unhealthy price competition within the industry, encouraging companies to abandon low-price strategies [3]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that adjusting export rebates could help rationalize foreign market prices, reduce trade friction risks, and alleviate the fiscal burden on the government [3]. - While the adjustment of export rebates is not the sole solution to the issue of "externalized internal competition," it is expected to help stabilize export prices and lower the likelihood of trade disputes in the long run [3].