【豆系观察】豆一：真实缺口or“虚假繁荣”？

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in soybean prices is attributed to a combination of supply-side dynamics and market sentiment, rather than a genuine supply shortage. The domestic soybean supply remains stable, with a projected production of approximately 20.9 million tons in 2025, reflecting a 1.2% year-on-year increase [3][12][13]. Supply Dynamics - The current soybean market is characterized by "loose total supply but tight circulation," as new beans are quickly released from grassroots selling pressure, leading to a transfer of ownership towards trade channels [3][12]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs indicates that domestic soybean production is not in a state of shortage, supporting the notion that the price increase is more about market dynamics than actual supply constraints [3][12]. - The recent adjustments in state reserve purchasing standards have been interpreted as a "policy bottom moving up," which has further elevated price levels [5][15]. Market Behavior - The behavior of grain holders, including farmers and trading companies, reflects a tendency to hold onto stocks due to expectations of policy support and concerns over tight domestic import supplies in the first quarter [4][14]. - The market has seen a significant transfer of soybean stocks from farmers to trade channels, with trade entities actively building inventories in response to concerns over potential disruptions in U.S. soybean imports [5][14]. - The recent auction of old soybeans has also boosted market sentiment, with a high transaction rate and premium prices indicating strong demand from traders [6][15]. Future Outlook - Two potential scenarios for the soybean market are identified: - Scenario A: Continued state reserve purchases or price adjustments could maintain a strong price center [7][16]. - Scenario B: A weakening of reserve purchasing efforts could lead to price corrections, particularly for lower-protein soybeans, while higher-protein soybeans may remain more resilient due to some rigid demand [7][16]. - The overall market is expected to remain supported by policy measures and pre-holiday stocking demands, but caution is advised regarding potential price volatility stemming from changes in import schedules and reserve release strategies [7][16].