以破“7”收官2025 2026年人民币汇率将何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan (RMB) is expected to experience a significant appreciation in 2025, influenced by various factors including tariff expectations, fluctuations in the US dollar, and improvements in the domestic economic environment, with the onshore and offshore RMB appreciating approximately 4.27% and 4.93% respectively by year-end [1][3]. Group 1: 2025 RMB Exchange Rate Performance - The RMB exchange rate showed a notable recovery in 2025, marking the largest increase in five years, with the onshore and offshore RMB closing at 6.9879 and 6.9697 against the USD, respectively, both reaching new highs since May 2023 [3][4]. - The year can be divided into two phases: the first phase from early January to early April saw the RMB depreciate approximately 0.65% due to rising global tariff risks, while the second phase from mid-April to year-end witnessed a cumulative appreciation of about 4.9% as external economic conditions improved [4][5]. Group 2: External and Internal Factors Influencing RMB - Externally, the RMB's appreciation was supported by a warming external economic environment following agreements between China and the US, alongside a depreciation of the USD due to various pressures, including the Federal Reserve's shift to a loose monetary policy [5][6]. - Internally, strong export performance and resilience in the financial market contributed to the RMB's strength, with exports showing unexpected rebounds and a trade surplus exceeding 1 trillion USD for the first time in 2025 [5][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for 2026 - Moving into 2026, the RMB is expected to continue a gradual appreciation against the USD, supported by a favorable external environment and a potential narrowing of interest rate differentials between China and the US [8][9]. - The RMB's asset attractiveness is anticipated to rise, attracting cross-border capital inflows, although there may be a decline in export growth, which could weaken the trade surplus's support for the exchange rate [9][10]. - Analysts predict that the RMB will likely fluctuate within the 6.9 to 7.3 range against the USD throughout 2026, with the potential for a mild appreciation against a basket of currencies [10][11].