棉花内外价差走扩

Core Viewpoint - The recent rapid increase in Zheng cotton prices, rising from 13,500 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton, has drawn significant market attention, while U.S. cotton prices remain low and stable, leading to an expanding price gap between domestic and international cotton [1] Group 1: Zheng Cotton Price Dynamics - Zheng cotton prices have risen due to cotton purchase prices stabilizing near planting costs and a tight supply-demand balance in the new season, especially with import restrictions in place [1] - The anticipated high production of 7.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season is gradually being absorbed by the market, contributing to the bullish sentiment for Zheng cotton [1] - Potential adjustments to cotton planting policies in 2026 may lead to reduced planting areas, which could further support prices in a market already facing supply shortages [2] Group 2: External Factors Influencing Cotton Prices - Unexpected weather events may significantly impact Zheng cotton prices, potentially more than policy changes, although weather effects are uncertain and typically short-term [2] - U.S. cotton export contracts and shipments are currently low, with Southeast Asia showing consistent purchasing, while exports to China are at historical lows [2] - Brazil's cotton exports are strong due to cost advantages, and this trend is expected to continue until March 2026, which may suppress U.S. cotton prices [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The expanding price gap between domestic and international cotton may lead to increased imports, particularly if imported cotton offers better value, potentially narrowing the price gap [3] - Downstream inventory accumulation may temporarily limit the upward movement of Zheng cotton prices [3] - The current high historical level of the domestic-international cotton price gap suggests a potential for price correction in the future, with traders advised to monitor U.S. cotton sales progress and the impact of imports on the market [3]