华泰期货：氧化铝上涨，长期现货压力依旧

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market has experienced a significant increase, with the main contract rising by 4.97% to close at 2939 CNY/ton, driven by market sentiment and capital inflow [2][7]. Market Summary - The main aluminum oxide futures contract opened at 2822 CNY/ton and closed at 2939 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 494,000 lots, an increase of 64,000 lots [2][7]. - In the spot market, a Yunnan electrolytic aluminum plant purchased 5000 tons of aluminum oxide at a price of 2680 CNY/ton, while transactions among Guangxi traders occurred at 2810 CNY/ton for 3000 tons [2][7]. - In Western Australia, 30,000 tons of aluminum oxide were sold at FOB 310 USD/ton, reflecting a 5 USD/ton increase compared to the previous period [2][7]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is characterized by simultaneous maintenance and resumption of production, with no significant reduction in supply or proactive cuts observed. The market sentiment and capital inflow have led to an expansion of smelting profits, indicating a low probability of short-term production cuts [2][8]. - The overall supply remains excessive, with social inventories continuing to rise and the import window open, suggesting persistent long-term pressure on spot prices [2][8]. - Regarding bauxite supply, the end of the rainy season in Guinea has led to a noticeable increase in shipment volumes, and previously halted mines are resuming operations, ensuring long-term supply stability. The first-quarter pricing for long-term contracts has been adjusted downward, with potential for further minor reductions, indicating limited cost support [2][8].