华泰期货：黑色商品久违上涨，释放什么信号？

Core Viewpoint - The black commodity market has experienced significant price increases, driven by multiple factors including supply concerns and low valuation compared to other commodities [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - All black commodities saw substantial gains, with coking coal and coke contracts both rising by 7.98%, soda ash by 7.53%, glass by 6.1%, and iron ore by 4.09% [8]. - The recent surge in black commodities is attributed to a combination of supply adjustments and market sentiment [9]. Group 2: Supply Concerns - Yulin City plans to remove 26 coal mines from the supply guarantee list, reducing production capacity by 19 million tons. This raises concerns about a potential decline in coal supply as the Energy Bureau aims to classify unapproved mines as illegal by June 2025 [8]. - Since 2021, approximately 500 million tons of new coal production capacity has been added, with a significant portion lacking proper documentation, which could lead to a substantial reduction in coal supply if regulations are strictly enforced [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recent price increases in black commodities follow a period where other commodities, particularly non-ferrous metals, have been rising, leading to a perceived undervaluation of black commodities [8]. - The influx of traders into the market due to rising prices has created short-term resource tightness, further driving up spot prices and supporting continued price increases in futures [8][9].