数据点评 | 输入性通胀的影响在升温（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Insights - The inflation data for December 2025 shows a year-on-year CPI increase of 0.8%, up from 0.7% in the previous month, and a PPI decrease of -1.9%, improving from -2.2% [1][4] CPI Analysis - The CPI increase is primarily driven by rising gold prices, which have a significant impact on core goods CPI, while excluding gold, the core goods CPI remains low [2][11] - The food CPI rose by 1.1%, with a notable increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, largely due to supply constraints affecting fresh vegetables and fruits [16][38] - The core service CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 1%, influenced by weak rental demand, which has led to a decline in rental prices [22][48] PPI Analysis - The PPI increase is mainly attributed to rising copper prices, which rose by 7.9% month-on-month, contributing positively to the PPI [1][4] - Other commodity prices and downstream PPI performance remain weak, with the overall PPI showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1][4] - The decline in international oil prices negatively impacted domestic oil prices, contributing to a PPI decrease of -0.05% [1][4] Future Outlook - The effectiveness of anti-involution policies in stimulating downstream prices is crucial for future PPI performance, as commodity prices have only explained about 30% of PPI fluctuations in the past three years [30] - The high gold prices and improvements in service consumption may support a rise in core CPI, but the high base effect from the Spring Festival may limit the CPI increase in January [30]