JPMorgan Upgrades Southwest Airlines, Shares Gain 4%

Core Viewpoint - Southwest Airlines has been upgraded to Overweight from Neutral by JPMorgan, with a new price target set at $60, significantly higher than the previous target of $36, leading to a 4% increase in shares intraday following the rating change [1] Group 1: Earnings Guidance - There is a meaningful probability that Southwest could issue earnings guidance of $5 per share, which would exceed the current 2026 consensus estimate of $2.98 and all existing individual forecasts [2] - JPMorgan noted that the market may initially be skeptical of such guidance due to Southwest's uneven track record, which has influenced the airline's decision to adopt a more streamlined EPS-based guidance framework [2] Group 2: Stock Valuation - Acceptance of guidance below $5, along with unchanged valuation assumptions, could still push the stock above $50 in the near term, paving the way for a potential valuation of $60 [3] - JPMorgan's analysis led to a double upgrade of the stock to Overweight and the establishment of a new Street-high price target of $60 for December 2026 [3] Group 3: Positive Catalyst Watch - JPMorgan placed Southwest on Positive Catalyst Watch ahead of the upcoming earnings report and 2026 guidance update scheduled for January 29, indicating that the updated financial model supports the revised outlook [4]