半年翻倍涨，逼近15万元/吨！锂价疯涨背后，电池行业变了

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures prices have surged, closing at 143,420 yuan per ton on January 9, 2026, marking a 120% increase from the low of 59,900 yuan per ton in June 2025, and reaching a new high since November 2023, becoming a significant price anchor in the new energy industry chain [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Demand for lithium has skyrocketed, with new energy vehicle sales increasing over 30% year-on-year and battery installation volumes rising over 40%. The energy storage market has also seen a doubling in domestic project bidding and a surge in overseas orders, leading to a supply-demand mismatch and short-term supply tightness [4] - The Chinese government has restricted the approval of new mining projects without self-built mines and tailings disposal facilities, impacting key expansion projects like Ganfeng Lithium's Cauchari-Olaroz and Tianqi Lithium's Sichuan expansion, which are currently ramping up production [4][6] Cost Pressures and Market Reactions - The solid waste management action plan released by the State Council has added to industry cost pressures, potentially increasing operational costs for companies. A recent meeting by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aimed to curb irrational competition in the lithium battery industry, further altering market expectations regarding overcapacity and driving lithium prices up [6] - Major battery companies are responding to rising raw material prices by increasing product prices, with some companies like Suzhou Dejia Energy announcing a 15% price hike. A shift towards long-term agreements in the supply chain is evident, with leading firms locking in costs through dynamic pricing mechanisms linked to market indices [7] Industry Restructuring - The deep binding agreements between leading battery companies and suppliers are excluding smaller players from the core supply chain, indicating a new round of industry consolidation. The market share of the top ten battery companies is expected to rise from 65% to 75% by 2025, with smaller firms facing accelerated exit from the market [8][10] - Recent acquisitions in the lithium resource sector, such as Salt Lake Co.'s acquisition of a controlling stake in China Salt Lake and Shengxin Lithium Energy's purchase of a stake in Qicheng Mining, highlight the increasing value of lithium resources [10] Technological Shifts - High lithium prices are catalyzing a shift towards alternative battery technologies, such as sodium batteries, which are gaining traction in mid-to-low-end energy storage and light-duty applications due to their cost advantages and stable material supply [11][13] - Investment in sodium battery projects has surged, with a total investment of approximately 61.5 billion yuan across 28 announced projects, indicating a significant shift in focus within the battery industry [13] - Solid-state battery technology, while initially seen as a potential solution to reduce lithium dependency, is showing increased lithium usage compared to lithium iron phosphate batteries, with projections for large-scale production expected around 2030 [14][16] Conclusion - The lithium carbonate price surge is not merely a short-term speculative trend but reflects a systemic revaluation based on real supply-demand dynamics, cost structures, and industry power shifts. Companies with resource advantages, technological depth, and cost discipline are transitioning from price takers to rule makers in this evolving landscape [10][16]