光伏出口退税全面取消

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration regarding the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, signals the end of the "rebate subsidy era" for the solar industry [1]. Group 1: Impact on the Industry - The current VAT export rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%, which will be reduced from 13% to 9% starting December 1, 2024 [1]. - The cancellation of export rebates is expected to significantly impact photovoltaic module manufacturers, leading to increased direct costs and reduced price competitiveness [1]. - The removal of the rebate means that export profits for companies will decrease by approximately 46 to 51 yuan per 210R photovoltaic module, compressing export gross margins and increasing export costs [1]. Group 2: Short-term and Long-term Effects - In the short term, there may be a surge in orders from overseas companies as they seek to capitalize on the remaining rebate period, potentially alleviating pessimistic expectations within the supply chain [2]. - However, long-term projections indicate a potential decline in photovoltaic module exports by 5% to 10% due to the cancellation of export rebates, leading to a noticeable drop in overseas demand [2]. - The cancellation is viewed as a significant blow to companies, particularly those that rely heavily on the rebate for profitability, affecting both small and large enterprises [2]. Group 3: Strategic Adjustments and Market Dynamics - The cancellation of export rebates is seen as a measure to combat unhealthy price competition within the industry, encouraging companies to abandon low-price strategies [3]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association supports the adjustment of export rebates as a means to promote rational pricing in foreign markets and reduce trade friction risks [3]. - Although the adjustment is not a comprehensive solution to the issue of "internal competition externalization," it is expected to help stabilize export prices and mitigate the likelihood of trade disputes in the long run [3].