2026，预见|固收+篇：破局之道——当纯债收益褪色，动态平衡才是“+”法的核心

Core Viewpoint - The era of relying solely on pure bond assets for investment is coming to an end, driven by changes in the macroeconomic environment, policy logic, and asset supply-demand structure. The focus is shifting towards a "fixed income plus" strategy that emphasizes multi-asset dynamic balance capabilities for survival in the evolving market landscape [2][13]. Group 1: Market Environment and Challenges - The traditional sources of returns from pure bond investments, namely coupon income and capital gains, are facing significant challenges, leading to a fundamental change in risk-return profiles [3][14]. - The yield on high-quality credit bonds has entered the "2% era," reflecting a shift in financing demand and a persistent "asset shortage," which has reduced the supply of high-yield bonds [3][14]. - Regulatory changes are reshaping the funding structure and behavior patterns in the bond market, complicating the management of stable returns and increasing difficulty in obtaining stable income [4][15]. Group 2: Redefining "Fixed Income Plus" - The upgraded "fixed income plus" strategy aims to enhance returns under controlled volatility, requiring managers to focus on the precise characterization and dynamic combination of multi-asset risk-return features [5][16]. - The strategy involves managing two key asymmetries: the selection of tools based on valuation asymmetry and the construction of portfolios to mitigate volatility through low or negative correlation assets [8][18]. - The use of convertible bonds as a tactical tool rather than a permanent fixture in portfolios is emphasized, with adjustments based on valuation levels to optimize returns [6][17]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategies - Incorporating dividend-paying stocks as a foundational equity asset can provide stable cash flow similar to coupon income while reducing overall portfolio volatility [6][17]. - Utilizing quantitative products to achieve stable excess returns relative to broad indices can help manage equity portions systematically and reduce individual stock risks [6][17]. - Expanding the asset classes included in the "plus" component, such as gold and public REITs, can enhance portfolio resilience against macroeconomic fluctuations [9][20]. Conclusion - The year 2026 is poised to be pivotal for asset management, transitioning from a "comfort zone" to a "capability zone." The convergence of pure bond yields presents an opportunity for more refined and systematic asset allocation strategies, with "fixed income plus" representing a comprehensive investment philosophy aimed at achieving absolute returns while managing risks effectively [21].