Benzinga·2026-01-09 18:55Core Viewpoint - Investors are focusing on the convenience retail sector due to changing demand and competitive pressures, with BofA Securities initiating coverage on Murphy USA Inc. and Casey's General Stores, Inc. [1] Group 1: Casey's General Stores - Analyst Lisa K. Lewandowski initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a price target of $700, based on a 2027 EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 15.9 times, which is above the one-year average and most peers [2] - The premium valuation is justified by Casey's higher-margin foodservice mix and expected consistent EBITDA growth in the range of 8% to 10% over the medium term [3] - Fuel sales accounted for approximately 61% of fiscal 2025 revenue, but 70% of inside transactions exclude fuel purchases, indicating a shift towards food destinations [4] - Casey's is the third-largest convenience store operator in the U.S. and ranks among the largest pizza chains and liquor license holders [4] - The rural footprint is seen as a competitive advantage in underserved food markets, with expectations for foodservice margins to expand as CEFCO locations convert to Casey's formats starting in 2026 [5] Group 2: Murphy USA - Coverage of Murphy USA was reinstated with an Underperform rating and a price target of $405, using a 2027 EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 8.6 times, which is below the long-term average [6] - Heavy exposure to fuel and nicotine sales is a constraint, with low gas prices and muted fuel volatility limiting earnings leverage [7] - Declining cigarette volumes and a relatively small foodservice business further weigh on performance, especially amid pressure on lower-income consumers [7] - Positive aspects include lean operations, a value-focused pricing strategy, and Walmart-adjacent locations, which provide some long-term support [8]