Trump Tariffs Allowed To Stand For Now, But Polymarket Traders Predict Only 25% Chance Of SCOTUS Approval

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court has not yet ruled on President Trump's global tariffs, with traders estimating a 75% chance of a favorable ruling for Trump [1] - Trump imposed tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), citing trade deficits as a national emergency, and has faced lower court rulings that he exceeded his authority [3][4] - The administration is appealing these lower court rulings, leading to the current Supreme Court review [5] Group 2 - There is a potential for $150 billion in refunds for major companies if Trump loses the tariff case, with several companies already filing lawsuits to challenge the tariffs and seek refunds [6][7] - Companies involved in the lawsuits include Costco, Alcoa, EssilorLuxottica, Goodyear, BorgWarner, GoPro, and Revlon, among others [7][8] Group 3 - Crypto traders believe that a ruling against Trump's tariffs could positively impact Bitcoin and other risk assets, as it would provide market clarity and ease cost pressures for corporations [9] - Trump has acknowledged the significant implications of the Supreme Court ruling, stating that a decision against the tariffs would be detrimental to the U.S. [10] Group 4 - Even if the Supreme Court strikes down the tariffs, it is expected that any rollback will be partial and gradual, with other duties remaining in place [11] - The case represents a significant test of presidential powers and the court's willingness to limit Trump's assertions of authority, with potential implications for the global economy [11]