【点石成金】多晶硅：政策预期转向，市场情绪退潮

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in polysilicon futures is attributed to tightening market regulations and a shift in policy expectations, leading to a significant price drop after a period of volatility [3][9]. Market Dynamics - Polysilicon futures opened lower and hit the limit down on January 8, 2026, following a peak price of 61,985 yuan/ton on December 17, 2025, driven by the establishment of a new company and its capacity storage plan [3][9]. - The market has seen a shift from early-stage industry coordination to competition driven by technological iteration, as regulatory signals emphasize a market-oriented and legal approach to industry development [3][9]. Supply and Demand - In the traditional off-season of November and December, there was a reduction in production across polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules, with polysilicon production experiencing a 14.5% decrease in November, followed by a recovery to approximately 115,500 tons in December [4][10]. - Despite a 19% reduction in silicon wafer production in December, polysilicon inventory increased from 281,000 tons to 306,000 tons, indicating a mismatch in supply and demand [4][10]. Price and Cost Factors - The surge in silver prices in December raised the cost of battery cell silver paste, leading to tentative price increases across the entire industry chain, with polysilicon prices rising to a range of 55,000 to 63,000 yuan/ton [4][10]. - However, high-priced transactions have primarily been spot trades, and the acceptance of these prices by downstream customers remains uncertain [4][10]. Future Outlook - The path to clearing polysilicon capacity may change, with regulatory measures encouraging a rational return of funds to the market, contributing to price corrections [6][12]. - A technical rebound may occur after the rapid decline, but the extent of this rebound will face pressure from real-world cost factors, with prices expected to test lower integer levels in the short term [6][12].