“筹码重置”窗口下的2026全球大宏观猜想

Group 1 - The article discusses potential "black swan" events that could impact the global market in 2026, driven by macroeconomic factors and geopolitical dynamics [2][14] - Predictions include AI-driven economic growth in the US, with potential annual growth rates exceeding 4%, reminiscent of the late 1990s [14] - The Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate cuts could lead to a "soft landing" for the economy if inflation is controlled [14] Group 2 - European economic recovery may be bolstered by effective fiscal stimulus from Germany and potential ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which would enhance asset prices [3][14] - Risks include the possibility of the Federal Reserve reversing its rate cuts if inflation remains above target, which could disrupt current market pricing [4][15] - The article highlights the potential for a debt crisis in the US and Japan, with the US facing unsustainable deficits and Japan having the highest public debt-to-GDP ratio globally [5][15] Group 3 - Geopolitical tensions may escalate as the US focuses on Latin America, potentially impacting trade dynamics and resource control in the region [16] - Extreme weather events and public health crises, such as the spread of new viruses, could further strain economic activities and supply chains [17] - The article notes that while the commodity market may present opportunities in 2026, there are concerns about overvaluation and potential market corrections due to concentrated expectations [8][19]