张永伟：2026年车市预计增长2% 下沉市场将是重要增长引擎

Core Insights - The automotive industry in China is entering a critical period of transformation and opportunity, with policies such as "trade-in for new" and tax exemptions for new energy vehicles (NEVs) expected to drive sales and shift the focus from short-term price competition to long-term value competition [2][3] - The domestic passenger car market is projected to exceed 27.6 million units in 2025, with a slight growth to 28.2 million units in 2026, indicating a stable growth expectation for the industry [2][3] Policy Support and Market Dynamics - The industry is expected to maintain stable growth, avoiding extreme fluctuations, which is crucial for healthy development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [3] - Key growth drivers identified include policy support, expansion into overseas markets, and the potential of lower-tier markets [3][4] Lower-Tier Market Potential - The demand in lower-tier markets, particularly in rural areas, is accelerating due to policy incentives and rising fuel prices, with sales growth in lower-tier cities significantly outpacing that of first-tier cities [4][5] - The penetration rate of NEVs in third and fourth-tier cities remains below 30%, indicating substantial growth potential in these markets [4] Export Growth and International Strategy - China's automotive market has seen significant growth, with sales surpassing 30 million units in 2023 and expected to reach approximately 31.9 million units in 2024, driven by both NEVs and exports [6] - The export volume of Chinese automobiles has rapidly increased, positioning China as the world's leading automotive exporter in 2023 and 2024 [6][7] - Companies are encouraged to shift from a simple "trade export" model to a comprehensive "ecological export" model that includes R&D, production, and service systems in overseas markets [6][7] Technological Advancements and Autonomous Driving - The approval of L3-level autonomous driving models marks a significant step towards maturity in the autonomous driving industry, necessitating the synchronization of technological innovation with regulatory frameworks [10][11] - The development of intelligent driving is seen as a core indicator of automotive intelligence, with China currently leading in market share and innovation in intelligent assistance driving [10][11]