天弘基金2026年策略会：聚焦全球变局与产业升级 勾勒投资新蓝图

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Investment Trends - The global economy continues to experience "divergence" and "restructuring," prompting investors to seek structural investment opportunities in 2026 [1] - In 2025, multiple funding sources contributed to a bullish A-share market, with increased participation from residents, insurance funds, and bank wealth management products expected to support market risk appetite in 2026 [1][2] - The return rate of A-shares is anticipated to rise while volatility remains low due to weakened capital expenditure cycles across households, government, and enterprises [1] Group 2: AI Investment Opportunities - Investment logic in AI is shifting from "hardware" to "software" and "applications," with a focus on computing power chips and infrastructure currently, and a future emphasis on AI software and green energy support [2] - Key investment directions for 2026 include improvements in domestic computing power chip performance, better fundamentals for semiconductor equipment manufacturers, and the potential emergence of popular domestic AI applications [2] Group 3: Industrial Demand and Commodity Investments - Global re-industrialization is driving demand across the entire advanced manufacturing supply chain, particularly for industrial metals like copper, lithium, cobalt, aluminum, and nickel [2] - Investment in Chinese power grid equipment, chemicals, commercial vehicles, and lithium battery storage is recommended due to their global competitive advantages [2] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is transitioning from a non-bank institution-led environment focused on capital gains to a bank-led market prioritizing funding costs and coupon income [3] - In 2026, the bond market is expected to face challenges but may yield better returns than in 2025 due to higher short- to medium-term interest rates and more rational institutional expectations [3] - Investment strategies should focus on earning coupon income first, followed by seeking capital gains, with caution advised in certain credit sectors like city investment and small bank capital tools [3]