猪价有望延续季节性温和反弹

Core Viewpoint - After several months of decline, pig prices in China showed a mild recovery by the end of 2025, with the Dalian Commodity Exchange's main contract for live pig futures rising by 6.45% from its lowest point in early December [1] Group 1: Price Trends - National pig prices reached a low point in mid-December 2025, followed by a three-week rebound, with prices increasing from 12.13 yuan per kilogram in December to 12.61 yuan in January 2026, a month-on-month increase of 3.4% [1] - National pork prices also saw a decline from 23.89 yuan per kilogram in early October 2025 to 22.48 yuan in the last week of December, before rebounding to 22.80 yuan in January 2026, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.4% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Weak demand has put pressure on pig prices, with excess production capacity contributing to the low prices [2] - The number of slaughtered pigs from January to November 2025 reached 36.246 million, a significant year-on-year increase of 19.3%, indicating a substantial rise in supply [2] - Consumer demand for pork remained weak throughout 2025, with traditional holiday stockpiling having limited impact on consumption [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Experts predict a seasonal mild rebound in pig prices before the Spring Festival, but the extent of this rebound is expected to be limited [3] - The supply of live pigs is expected to remain ample, which fundamentally restricts the potential for price increases [3] - The recent rebound in pork prices is viewed as a temporary holiday effect, with limited long-term impact on overall market trends [3] Group 4: Industry Recommendations - The industry is currently in a phase of balancing high production capacity and seasonal demand recovery [4] - To enhance risk resilience, producers are advised to manage their output strategically and focus on long-term efficiency improvements [4] - Recommendations include optimizing breeding efficiency, controlling costs, and gradually reducing production capacity to improve profitability [4]