全球央行货币政策继续分化

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that 2025 marks a transition to a global monetary easing cycle after a period of significant interest rate hikes to combat inflation, with varying degrees of policy implementation across different countries [1][2] - Major central banks are adopting easing policies primarily due to declining inflation pressures, with global inflation significantly weakening from a historical high of 10% in 2022 to a core inflation range of 2% to 4% in 2025 [1][2] - The International Monetary Fund predicts a slight contraction in global economic growth in 2025, with an overall growth rate of approximately 3.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from 2024 [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are leading the way in easing policies, with the Fed balancing inflation control and labor market stability, while the Bank of England continues to lower rates due to weak domestic demand [3] - The European Central Bank, along with the central banks of Canada and Australia, has also implemented rate cuts, but their policy stances have shown significant variation, with the ECB signaling a more hawkish approach in the latter half of 2025 [3][4] - In contrast, the Bank of Japan is tightening its monetary policy, having raised interest rates twice in 2025 due to steady wage growth and inflation exceeding the 2% target [4] Group 3 - The divergence in interest rate paths among major economies is influenced by persistent inflation, with geopolitical tensions and tariff measures being key factors affecting global supply chains and monetary policy decisions [5] - Rising global debt levels, projected to reach approximately $108 trillion by the end of 2025, are also impacting monetary policy, particularly in the U.S., where government debt is expected to reach 125% of GDP [6] - Economic data will play a crucial role in shaping future monetary policy, with central banks indicating that their decisions will depend on inflation and labor market conditions [7] Group 4 - Despite predictions that some central banks may pause their easing cycles in 2026, uncertainties in the global trade environment remain a significant concern, potentially leading to renewed monetary easing if economic conditions worsen unexpectedly [8]