21评论丨2026年债市：震荡中的机会

Group 1 - The bond market is expected to exhibit a "top and bottom" oscillation pattern in 2025, with a continuation of differentiation and fluctuation into 2026, highlighting certain bonds with relative value [2] - Under a backdrop of moderately loose monetary policy and stable funding conditions, medium- to short-term interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds are anticipated to provide stable coupon yields, serving as core components for portfolio construction and volatility resistance [2] - Super long-term government bonds have become attractive after significant adjustments, with potential for trading rebounds in the absence of further negative catalysts [2] Group 2 - Focus on regional and industry-specific credit bond opportunities, emphasizing structural exploration in a low overall credit spread environment, particularly in light of the implementation of debt policies in 2026 [3] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" orientation, with a two-phase interest rate trend anticipated for 2026: a decline in the first quarter followed by an increase in the second quarter [3] - The central economic work conference indicates that city investment bonds will remain a key focus, with expectations for new measures to alleviate local government debt risks [4] Group 3 - Innovative bond types such as technology innovation bonds and green bonds are expected to expand, supported by policies aimed at enhancing financing channels for tech enterprises [4] - The improvement in corporate profitability expectations, particularly in industries like steel and photovoltaics, is likely to alleviate some corporate debt issues and reduce credit risks in related industry bonds [5] - Key developments in the bond market infrastructure are anticipated, including the unification and high-quality development of the domestic bond market and the deepening of the interconnection between the mainland and Hong Kong bond markets [5]