21社论丨优化供需结构，持续提振投资与消费预期

Group 1 - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the domestic CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, surpassing the previous value of 0.7%, while the month-on-month CPI shifted from a decline of 0.1% to an increase of 0.2%, reaching a near three-year high [1] - The month-on-month increase in CPI was primarily driven by rising prices of industrial consumer goods excluding energy, which increased by 0.6%, contributing approximately 0.16 percentage points to the CPI increase [1] - The year-on-year CPI increase of 0.8% was mainly attributed to a larger rise in food prices, with fresh vegetables and fruits seeing price increases of 18.2% and 4.4%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The main factors affecting CPI include energy and automobile prices, with energy prices declining by 0.5% month-on-month due to international oil price fluctuations, and domestic gasoline prices decreasing by 1.2% [2] - The month-on-month PPI increase has expanded, and the year-on-year decline has narrowed, indicating a need for further consolidation of the upward trend [2] - The improvement in PPI is influenced by international commodity prices, with domestic prices in the non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industries rising by 3.7% and 2.8% respectively [3] Group 3 - The current price recovery is a direct result of the coordinated efforts of demand-side expansion and supply-side governance policies in 2025, characterized by structural features and policy-driven characteristics [3] - The ability to maintain this trend and translate it into widespread investment and consumption expectations will determine whether the economy can enter a virtuous cycle of "moderate price recovery - improved corporate profits - balance sheet repair - expanded domestic demand" in 2026 [3] - There is a need to actively expand domestic demand and improve supply-demand relationships to promote a smooth transmission of PPI to CPI, thereby enhancing corporate profits and consumer confidence [4]