Sugar Prices Climb on Commodity Index Rebalancing

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased, reaching one-week highs due to expectations of index-related buying for annual rebalancing, with projected inflows of $1.2 billion into sugar futures contracts from major commodity indexes [2] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.08 (+0.53%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +2.00 (+0.47%) [1] - Sugar prices fell to two-week lows last Friday due to signs of stronger sugar output in India [5] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The Brazilian real's recent strength is supportive for sugar prices as it discourages export sales, potentially reducing supplies [3] - Brazil's sugar production is expected to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) in 2026/27, with exports projected to fall -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [4] Group 3: Indian Sugar Production - Indian sugar production for 2025-26 has increased by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT, with the overall production estimate raised to 31 MMT, up +18.8% year-on-year [5] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT in the 2025/26 season [6]