全球气候变暖趋势延续

Core Insights - The UK Met Office predicts that by 2026, the global average temperature will rise by 1.34 to 1.58 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels, with a median estimate of 1.46 degrees Celsius [1] - The hottest recorded year is 2024, with an average temperature 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and it is expected that global average temperatures will exceed 1.4 degrees Celsius for four consecutive years from 2024 to 2026 [2] - The ongoing trend of global warming is attributed to the continuous accumulation of greenhouse gas emissions [3] Climate Events - In 2025, extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity, with significant impacts on health, energy systems, and food security [4] - Notable extreme weather events include heatwaves in Southern Europe, North America, and East Asia, leading to increased mortality risks and energy crises [4] - Severe droughts and wildfires in North America and high-latitude regions disrupt public health and transportation systems, while carbon emissions rise [5] - In Southeast Asia and South Asia, unprecedented compound flooding disasters are anticipated, affecting large populations [6] La Niña and Temperature Fluctuations - At the beginning of 2026, a weak La Niña state is expected, which may lead to temporary fluctuations in global average surface temperatures [9] - The La Niña phenomenon is not expected to reverse global warming but may redistribute heat and precipitation, resulting in varied regional climate impacts [12] Compound Extreme Events - The interaction between extreme weather events is intensifying, leading to an increase in compound extreme events, which can have more severe impacts than single events [13] - These compound events can affect multiple sectors, including water resources, food production, and infrastructure, necessitating enhanced research and response capabilities [14]