视频丨去年金价狂飙美元贬值 全球资产加速去美元化

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant decline in the value of the US dollar and a corresponding surge in gold prices, indicating a potential challenge to the dollar's credibility by 2025 [1][3][5]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The US dollar index fell from around 108 at the beginning of 2025 to approximately 98 by the end of the year, marking a cumulative decline of 9.4%, the worst performance in eight years [3]. - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has been continuously decreasing, with the International Monetary Fund reporting a drop from 57.08% in Q2 2025 to 56.92% in Q3 2025, remaining below 60% for over ten consecutive quarters, the lowest since 1995 [3]. Group 2: Gold Price Surge - In 2025, gold prices reached new historical highs more than 50 times throughout the year, with the London spot gold price increasing by over 60% cumulatively [1]. - The global central banks are increasing their gold holdings to diversify and stabilize their asset portfolios, leading to a significant rise in international gold prices [1][5]. Group 3: Structural Challenges to Dollar Credibility - The aggressive tariff policies of the US government have severely impacted global multilateral trade and increased intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve, raising concerns about the sustainability of US government debt [5]. - The frequent weaponization of the dollar through financial sanctions has eroded global confidence in the dollar, suggesting a continued trend towards de-dollarization in global asset allocation [7]. Group 4: Shift in Global Asset Allocation - By mid-2025, the share of US Treasury bonds in central bank reserves (excluding the Federal Reserve) fell below 25%, while gold's share rose above 25%, marking the first time since 1996 that gold surpassed US debt in central bank reserves [7]. - The global capital's risk appetite for dollar assets is declining, indicating that the downward trend of the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves is unlikely to reverse, leading to a more diversified international monetary system [9]. Group 5: Future of International Monetary System - Despite the decline of the dollar, the weak economic performance of Europe and Japan suggests that the euro and yen are unlikely to replace the dollar in the short term, prompting central banks to allocate more foreign exchange reserves to gold [11]. - The long-term decline of the dollar indicates a shift towards a multipolar international monetary system, where a few major currencies will compete and balance against each other [11].