华泰期货：集运指数（欧线）下跌，淡季合约面临估值压力

Core Viewpoint - The shipping rates for the MSC in the second half of January remain stable compared to the first half, indicating a potential peak in freight rates [2][8]. Group 1: Freight Rates and Contracts - The EC2602 contract shows that MSC's rates for the second half of January are at $2,840 per FEU, consistent with the first half [2][8]. - Maersk's rate for the fourth week of January from Shanghai to Rotterdam is $2,700 per FEU, reflecting a $100 increase from the previous week, while the rate from Ningbo to Rotterdam is reported at $2,400 per FEU [2][8]. - The PA Alliance's rates for January 16-22 are at $2,600 per FEU, and the OA Alliance's rates range from $2,800 to $2,950 per FEU [2][8]. - The estimated settlement price for the EC2602 contract is projected to be between 1,750 and 1,850 points under pessimistic scenarios, with a focus on price adjustments in the latter half of January [2][8]. Group 2: Future Outlook and Market Conditions - The long-term contracts face pressure due to the anticipated reopening of the Suez Canal, which may lead to downward adjustments in valuations [3][9]. - The SCFI rates for the Shanghai-Europe route during normal years (2017-2019) ranged from $600 to $1,200 per FEU, indicating potential future benchmarks [3][9]. - The CMA FAL1 route is set to fully resume operations in January 2026, while the FAL3 route has begun trial runs [3][9]. - The overall market outlook for the first half of 2026 suggests limited pressure from new large vessel deliveries, with only four vessels (totaling 89,776 TEU) expected [4][9].