华泰期货：铝价冲高后快速回调，风险有所释放

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the current state of aluminum and alumina prices, market trends, and inventory levels, indicating a cautious outlook for the industry [7][17]. Group 1: Aluminum Market Data - As of January 8, 2026, the A00 aluminum price in East China is 24,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 140 CNY/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - The main aluminum futures contract opened at 24,350 CNY/ton and closed at 23,725 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 563,137 lots [2]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory stands at 714,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous period [2]. Group 2: Alumina Market Data - On January 8, 2026, the alumina price in Shanxi is 2,655 CNY/ton, while in Shandong it is 2,585 CNY/ton, and in Guangxi it is 2,735 CNY/ton [3]. - The main alumina futures contract opened at 2,923 CNY/ton and closed at 2,863 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 46 CNY/ton [3]. Group 3: Aluminum Alloy Market Data - The procurement price for civilian aluminum is 17,700 CNY/ton, and for mechanical aluminum, it is 18,000 CNY/ton, both showing a decrease of 300 CNY/ton from the previous day [4]. - The total theoretical cost for aluminum alloy is 22,988 CNY/ton, with a theoretical profit of 312 CNY/ton [6]. Group 4: Market Analysis - The aluminum market is experiencing a rapid price correction after a previous increase, with traders holding back due to high premiums, leading to a cautious purchasing attitude from downstream consumers [7][17]. - The alumina market continues to face oversupply, with increasing social inventory and a lack of upward price momentum due to sufficient raw material reserves at electrolytic aluminum plants [7][17]. Group 5: Strategy - The strategy for aluminum is cautiously bullish, while for alumina, it is cautiously bearish, and for aluminum alloy, it is cautiously bullish [8][18].