Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has raised its short-term forecast for the RMB exchange rate due to strong Chinese exports and a weakening US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Predictions - The USD/CNY exchange rate is expected to reach 6.85 in the first quarter, down from a previous forecast of 7.05, and is projected to end 2026 at 7.0, also lower than the earlier estimate of 7.05 [1]. - By 2027, the exchange rate is anticipated to accelerate to 6.80 [1]. Group 2: Export Impact - Strong export momentum in China is expected to provide stable support for the nominal RMB exchange rate in 2026 and 2027 [3]. - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index is projected to remain around 98-99 in the near term, with an increase to approximately 100 by 2027 [2].
摩根士丹利将一季度人民币兑美元汇率预期上调至6.85
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-09 01:49