机构预测2026年泰国出口总值将萎缩1.2%

Group 1: Export Forecasts - Thailand's total export value is expected to shrink by 1.2% in 2026, primarily due to the potential expansion of U.S. tariff measures and a slowing global trade outlook [1] - The export growth to major markets is projected to slow down, with key products experiencing declines [1] Group 2: Electronic Products - The export value of Thailand's electronic products is anticipated to decrease by approximately 3.1% in 2026, mainly due to pressures in the U.S. market, particularly for integrated circuits and semiconductor products facing tariff risks under Section 232 [1] - Other electronic products, such as hard disk drives and mobile phone components, are also expected to see a slowdown after previous export acceleration [1] Group 3: Home Appliances - Thailand's home appliance export value is forecasted to decline by 1.5% in 2026, primarily due to a slowdown in air conditioner and refrigerator exports, partly because some production bases have shifted from Thailand to Vietnam [1] Group 4: Automotive and Parts - The export value of Thailand's automotive sector is expected to shrink by 3.0% in 2026, driven by increasing competition from Chinese products [1] - Additionally, stricter carbon emission and safety standards in Australia, a key export market, pose further challenges for Thai automotive exports [1] - The automotive parts exports to the U.S. are predicted to be significantly impacted by Section 232 import tariffs [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Thailand's agricultural product export value is projected to decrease by 1.4% in 2026, mainly due to stable prices and intensified global market competition, particularly with rice exports facing pressure from India's expanding exports [2] - Agricultural production is also expected to decline due to a shift from favorable La Niña conditions in 2025 to a neutral state, potentially leading to water shortages for agriculture [2] Group 6: Agro-Industrial Products - The export value of Thailand's agro-industrial products is expected to maintain growth, but the growth rate will slow to 1.0% in 2026 [3]