供应高压可能延续 鸡蛋期价预计区间震荡

Core Viewpoint - The egg futures market is experiencing a seasonal increase in prices and demand ahead of the Spring Festival, with current trading showing a strong short-term bias, although the overall supply-demand balance remains loose [1][4]. Market Data Summary - As of January 9, 2026, the main egg futures contract closed at 3040 yuan per 500 kg, with a weekly increase of 3.72% [1]. - The average price of eggs in major production areas as of January 9 is as follows: Shandong 6.54 yuan/kg, Hebei 6.15 yuan/kg, Guangdong 7.07 yuan/kg, and Beijing 6.6 yuan/kg, all remaining stable compared to the previous day [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The national laying hen inventory as of December 2025 is reported at 1.344 billion birds, a decrease of 0.08 million from the previous month but an increase of 5% year-on-year, which is below prior expectations [2]. - Brazil's egg exports reached a record 40,894 tons in 2025, a significant increase of 121.4% from 18,469 tons in 2024, driven by strong demand from the U.S. market [2]. Institutional Perspectives - Zhongtai Futures indicates that the current egg market is entering a seasonal stocking and price increase phase ahead of the Spring Festival, with short-term strength driven by spot prices, but the overall supply pressure is expected to continue into the post-festival off-season [4]. -招商期货 notes a decrease in the laying hen inventory but a slowdown in production capacity reduction. The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to accelerate sales, with low prices boosting demand, although the supply remains ample, leading to anticipated price fluctuations in the short term [4].